Retail industry forecast 2019
The US-China trade conflict will have a negative impact on retail sales in both countries in 2019, especially China. In 2019, consumer sentiment and sales are easily affected by volatile politics, with the main risk being trade war.
As predicted, the global economy will be affected by protectionism, making retail sales also affected. Users continue to be attracted by online shopping channels, instead of traditional stores like before. Besides, the price pressures are also greater due to the increase in trade barriers.
Some forecasts about the retail industry in 2019
Global retail growth was 2.8% in 2019, down from the previous forecast of 2.9%
Retail sales growth in the US is 2.4%, the same level as 2018
The most heavily affected area of trade disputes is China. Retail sales growth in China was 6.1%, down from the previous 6.7%
Global retail industry develops unevenly
Donald Trump's trade policies are not enough to impact the US retail market in 2019. Although the prices of some items may be higher due to tariffs, consumers still do not have many difficulties in Procurement due to increased income, while unemployment and inflation are low. As a result, the US is still the largest consumer center in the world, accounting for more than one fifth of global retail sales in 2019. It is expected that global retail sales this year will reach 20 trillion USD.
Regional retail sales in 2018 and 2019
In the second largest retail market, China, the previous growth in consumer spending was 7.3%, only 3% this year. However, the most important thing is the prospect of China's retail industry is declining. Before the outbreak of trade war, it is expected that retail sales will increase 6.7% in 2019. However, the new growth prospect will be 6.1%.
In Western Europe, sales became bleak due to price sensitivity, the continued increase in discounted stores, resulting in limited spending. In the UK, retail sales are expected to decline by 0.7%.
Meanwhile, after the period of lower oil prices from 2014 - 2016 and the subsequent slowdown, the Middle East and Africa will recover, however, this recovery is still slow. Political risks also exist in this area. Similarly, low oil prices make the Latin American currency weaken, accelerating inflation, negatively affecting consumer confidence.
Four years after the Ukraine crisis and the annexation of Crimea into Russia, sales in transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe began to grow. High consumer demand and the recovery of global oil prices are good signals for retail sales in this region.
However, the prominent growth area is Asia. Although Asian consumers do not tend to shop much and are vulnerable to fluctuations and the business environment is also quite difficult. However, due to the gloomy situation in Western trading streets and chaos elsewhere, Asia is a safe choice for many people.
Retail sales in Asia will increase 4.4% in 2019, although sales in China decrease. Fortunately, sales in other markets such as Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia will increase sharply. However, only India is able to "shoulder" the decline of China.
What do shops in the world sell in 2019?
The field of Indian e-commerce is growing rapidly. The internet retail industry will continue to bring surprises in 2019, bringing many opportunities for successful people in this field, on the contrary, also failing people to fall into stalemate.
Market demand for each item in 2018 and 2019
In 2019, soap and cosmetics are expected to top the market demand. Consumer electronics as well as home audio equipment and video equipment also rank high. However, this year the food and beverage sector may be cut down due to rising taxes and other supply problems.
Growth in consumption of food and beverages is slowing, especially for alcoholic beverages, per capita consumption is declining. In general, the food and beverage industry is facing a series of challenges: cheaper branded products, more expensive handmade products, start-up firms that appear in the high-end segment, many goods goods from emerging market enterprises.
Consumers increasingly prefer safe, healthy products. Therefore, regulatory agencies will tighten the monitoring of food hygiene and safety, and this has become a new challenge for food processors.